Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.000280 0.000313 0.000349 0.000391 0.000438 0.000490 0.000552
2025-01-12 0.000213 0.000258 0.000312 0.000381 0.000467 0.000572 0.000709
2025-01-19 0.000168 0.000217 0.000278 0.000362 0.000475 0.000622 0.000831
2025-01-26 0.000147 0.000198 0.000267 0.000366 0.000508 0.000704 0.001003
2025-02-02 0.000135 0.000190 0.000267 0.000383 0.000558 0.000816 0.001231
2025-02-09 0.000119 0.000174 0.000254 0.000379 0.000576 0.000880 0.001398
2025-02-16 0.000109 0.000164 0.000247 0.000383 0.000605 0.000964 0.001606
2025-02-23 0.000099 0.000153 0.000237 0.000379 0.000621 0.001028 0.001790
2025-03-02 0.000091 0.000145 0.000231 0.000381 0.000647 0.001110 0.002018
2025-03-09 0.000084 0.000137 0.000224 0.000380 0.000665 0.001183 0.002239
2025-03-16 0.000075 0.000125 0.000208 0.000363 0.000653 0.001197 0.002347
2025-03-23 0.000070 0.000119 0.000203 0.000364 0.000674 0.001275 0.002596
2025-03-30 0.000068 0.000117 0.000205 0.000378 0.000724 0.001421 0.003022
2025-04-06 0.000062 0.000110 0.000196 0.000370 0.000730 0.001477 0.003266
2025-04-13 0.000055 0.000100 0.000182 0.000352 0.000712 0.001484 0.003397
2025-04-20 0.000052 0.000097 0.000180 0.000356 0.000741 0.001595 0.003800
2025-04-27 0.000051 0.000096 0.000183 0.000373 0.000800 0.001782 0.004432
2025-05-04 0.000048 0.000091 0.000177 0.000368 0.000811 0.001862 0.004801
2025-05-11 0.000045 0.000088 0.000175 0.000372 0.000841 0.001989 0.005325
2025-05-18 0.000043 0.000084 0.000170 0.000368 0.000853 0.002075 0.005754
2025-05-25 0.000041 0.000082 0.000167 0.000370 0.000880 0.002202 0.006333
2025-06-01 0.000038 0.000078 0.000163 0.000369 0.000898 0.002310 0.006877
2025-06-08 0.000035 0.000073 0.000153 0.000353 0.000874 0.002298 0.007036